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3.3 Attributing Landbase Change: Individual Habitat Elements
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4 Status of Birds

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Attributing Landbase Change: How Changes in the Landbase Affect Habitat Elements

In this section we evaluate how landbase changes (e.g. new forestry footprint, fire) from 2010-2018 in Norbord's operating areas are predicted to affect abundance of habitat elements, such as vegetation cover and large trees.

In the Northern and Southern Operating Areas, most habitat elements were predicted to decrease as a result of landbase change.

image Photo: Bruce Aldridge

Grass cover

image Photo: ABMI

Bare ground

image Photo credit: Nicholas A. Tonelli

Deciduous snag

image Photo: ABMI

Shrub cover

Introduction

In this section, we provide summaries of the overall predicted change in habitat elements to different types of change on the landbase, including changes as a result of forestry (new and old), non-forestry footprint (new and old), fire, and aging of undisturbed stands. In this section, we present roll-up figures for all habitat elements showing the effects of: 

  • New versus regenerating old forestry; 
  • Fires versus aging undisturbed stands; 
  • Net human footprint versus net natural changes.

Details for calculating attribution can be found in the Methods.

Lichen cover

Results

Effects of Landbase Change

To view how different types of landbase change affect habitat elements in Norbord's operating areas, click on a section to explore results.

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New Forestry versus Regeneration of Old Harvest Areas

Highlights
  • In the Northern Operating Area, the net effect of new and regenerating forestry is negative for most habitat elements (below green line). Many of these elements are directly removed as a result of forestry activities (e.g. live trees), or respond negative to changes in habitat (e.g. moss cover). 
  • In contrast, in the Southern Operating Area, the reduction of many habitat elements as a result of new forestry is almost directly offset by aging of old harvest areas. Like the Northern Operating Area, there are some habitat elements that are negatively impacted by new forestry which have not yet recovered in new forestry footprint.
Figure: Scatterplot of predicted change in relative abundance due to new forestry versus predicted change from old forestry for the Northern Operating Area and Southern Operating Area. Each point is a habitat element. Predicted change from 2010 to 2018 from new forestry (y-axis) is plotted against predicted change from aging of old harvest areas (x-axis; note different scale). Habitat elements above the green line show a net increase due to forestry, elements below a net decrease. For habitat elements right on the line, aging of old harvest areas exactly offset new forestry. Hover over a point to view predicted change for individual habitat elements.

Fires versus Aging of Undisturbed Native Stands

Highlights
  • Changes in abundance of many habitat elements due to fire were offset by changes due to natural stands aging. Small dead trees increased greatly as a result of recent fires while others showed moderate increases (above green line on left side of graphs).  
  • Some elements—such as large snags, trees, and fallen logs—that are more abundant in older forest also showed predicted strong increases due to aging; these increases outweighed losses in burned areas (above green line on right side of graphs).
  • Habitat elements that decreased (below green line) were mainly lowland conifer categories; there may have been more fires in lowland forests resulting in these decreases.  

Forest fires are the predominant natural disturbance in boreal and montane forests.
Photo: Norbord

Figure: Scatterplot of predicted change in relative abundance due to fires versus predicted change from aging of undisturbed natural stands. Each point is a habitat element. Predicted change from 2010 to 2018 from fires (y-axis) is plotted against predicted change from aging of undisturbed natural stands (x-axis). Habitat elements above the green line show a net increase due to these natural changes, elements below a net decrease. For habitat elements right on the line, aging of undisturbed stands exactly offset fires. Only shown for the Northern Operating Area, due to limited fire in Southern Operating Area. Hover over a point to view predicted change for individual habitat elements.

Net Effect of Human Footprint versus Net Natural Change

Highlights
  • A slight majority of analyzed habitat elements showed a net reduction due to natural and/or human-caused disturbance (indicated by points below green line). These are mainly live trees that are expected to decrease as a result of disturbances.   
  • In the Southern Operating Area, large changes were mainly associated with changes in human footprint, which is mainly forestry; predicted changes in relative abundance ranged from -10.7% (large conifers >25 cm dhb) to +5.4% (bare ground). There is also generally more natural change than in the North with predicted changes in the South ranging from -7.1% (lowland conifers <7 cm dbh) to +5.9% (dead deciduous >25 cm dbh).
  • In the Northern Operating Area, net change from all human footprint (-7.0% to 8.6%) had more effect than did natural changes (-2.7% to +4.6%).
Figure: Scatterplot of predicted change in relative abundance due to net change as a result of natural disturbance versus predicted change from all human footprint. Each point is a habitat element. Predicted change from 2010 to 2018 from net natural change (y-axis) is plotted against predicted change from net change from all human footprint (x-axis). Habitat elements above the green line show a net increase due to change from human footprint, elements below a net decrease. For habitat elements right on the line, natural disturbance exactly offset human footprint. Hover over a point to view predicted change for individual habitat elements.

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